Best Way To Win On Scratchers
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- Best Scratchers To Win
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Secrets of State Lottery Scratch-off Contracts
When most people think of advantage gambling, state lottery scratch-offs are the last thing that enters their minds.
Everyone’s heard of counting cards at blackjack. There are even several moviesabout it.
And poker has been shown to be a game of skill; just look at the repeat winners of major tournaments like the World Series of Poker and the World Poker Tour.
But most people still refer to the lottery as an “idiot tax”.
And scratch offs have a notoriously bad expected value (which you can think of as a gambling game’s return on investment).
To give you an example of how bad lottery tickets can be, most $1 scratch offs have an expected value of around 60%, meaning for every $1 you spend, you’re expected to get back just $0.60; a $0.40 loss.
Most penny slots have paybacks that are better than that.
And other gambling games, like blackjack, can approach 99% payback without any card counting at all.
I’m here to shed light on a new way of thinking about scratch-offs and show you how you can improve your odds. It won’t always be profitable.
But under the right circumstances, it can be. If you’re going to play regardless, you might as well maximize your chances of winning.
Here are my insights about how to win at scratch-offs. I’ve gained these insights by reading the contracts and procurement documents that state lottery organizations have with their ticket printers.
Combine these insights with sites that calculate a scratch-off ticket’s odds, and you’ll be playing like a sharp
Where Are Scratch-off Grand Prizes?
Grand prizes are not random.
I’m sure all of these insights will come as a surprise.
But this one is probably the biggest.
Surely the state wants to ensure a fair game.
How can it be fair if the biggest prizes of all aren’t even random?
Here’s an image of the procurement document that the Massachusett’s lottery used to elicit bids from ticket printers:
You’ll see that they require the grand prizes to be distributed evenly throughout the game.
Note that “distributed evenly throughout the game” is not random.
If the prizes were random, then they might all appear at the start of the game. Or they might all appear at the end of a game.
But the state doesn’t want that to happen. If all of the grand prizes were claimed at the start of the game, then people would stop playing the game because they would have no shot at the big money.
You can take advantage of this fact by figuring out how many tickets are in a “pool” where a grand prize should be. If there are 9,000,000 tickets and 3 grand prizes, then divide 9,000,000 by 3 to figure out that there must be 1 grand prize every 3,000,000 tickets.
Then, use the state’s lottery website to figure out how many tickets remain. Most states publish this information for each game.
In the example game just mentioned, if there were 7,000,000 tickets remaining and still 3 remaining grand prizes, then you know the first grand prize must be in the next 1,000,000 tickets. Your odds just improved from 1 in 3,000,000 to 1 in 1,000,000.
That may not seem like much, but it can mean the difference between negative and positive expected value.
Is There A Limit To The Number Of Big Winning Tickets In A Roll?
Here’s an image from documents filed as part of a Texas lawsuit against the state and the ticket printer:
In this contract that Texas has with IGT, there’s a clause that states that there can be no more than a certain number of $25-$50 winners per pack of tickets. There’s another clause that states there can be no more than one winner of $75 and higher per pack. (The “one” is redacted, but we can deduce that tit’s one by looking at the word following the redaction, which is “winner” rather than “winners”).
How can you use this to your advantage?
Buy only one ticket from a pack at a time and scratch it right there at the store.
If it happens to be a big winner, don’t buy any more tickets from that pack.
What Is The Minimum Payback for a Roll of Scratch-off Tickets?
This next image is from the request for a proposal from the New Mexico lottery association to ticket printers:
It shows that each pack of tickets has some guaranteed payout. The details of the guaranteed payout aren’t specified, but from other contracts and personal experience, I’ve found it to typically be about 50% of the price of a pack of tickets. If an entire roll of tickets costs $600, then the GLEP is usually about $300.
What this means for the advantage player is that you should not stop buying after a string of losers.
Since each roll of tickets is guaranteed to have a certain minimum payout, then every loser you see increases the chance that the remaining tickets are winners.
Conclusion
While none of the above insights will guarantee you will win, they are just a few of the things you can do for yourself if you want to know how to beat scratch-offs.
Combine these insights with some expected value calculations from the remaining prizes that get displayed on the state lottery websites and you’ll be doing way better than the average lotto player.
Good luck.
About the Author
Eric Ihli, a professional gambler/programmer, spent 10 years as a full-time professional gambler and 5 years as a software engineer. He now combines those two passions by writing software to discover and evaluate profitable gambling opportunities.
WARNING: Bad Advice Alert!
There is just so much bad information out there. Most scratch off tips you will find online are total nonsense - seriously!
They are based on guessing, bad observation, bad data -- and drawing completely the wrong conclusions.
Not to mention the bad maths. Oh dear, the bad maths, LOL :-)
This is just a small sample of the bad stuff:-
- Scratch off tickets are just random dumb luck - WRONG!
- Every ticket has exactly the same chance of winning - WRONG!
- You should only buy from lucky stores - WRONG!
- Buy entire rolls of tickets as there is a guaranteed number of winners in each pack - WRONG!
- Buying low priced lottery tickets in bulk is the best option - WRONG!
- Always buy scratchers in batches of 5 of the same ticket - WRONG!
- Buying all your tickets at the same time increases your chances of winning - WRONG!
- If you see someone buy a winning ticket, avoid that roll as the next one will be a loser - WRONG!
- Watch for a series of losing scratch-offs, then buy some of those as the next one is more likely to be a winner - WRONG!
- Leverage the cheap tickets to build up to the grand prizes - WRONG!
- Once you choose a game, always stick to that same game - WRONG!
I could go on. All of these so-called tips are out there online. People are following this advice in the hope it will help them to win big on the scratchers.
Sadly, it won't help at all. That stuff just means even more losing tickets.
You Should Be Angry - I Am!
It makes me really quite mad that people have been putting out such useless 'advice'.
Which is exactly why I decided to put together this collection of scratch off lottery tips that do improve your chances of winning.
And to make them free to you too!
So enter your best email below, and start reading 'How To Win Big At Scratch Offs' right now:-
Privacy Assured: Your email address is never shared with anyone
How To Win Scratch Offs Every Time..?
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Let's put this myth to bed right now. You cannot win at scratch offs every time. There is no way to beat the system and guarantee a win each time you play. Not in the way you really want.
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(Do you really just mean 'win' or do you actually want a 'profit'..?)
You could buy a ton of tickets, and that would mean you are extremely likely to win with at least one of them.
But if it's only a small win, and most of your tickets are losing tickets. Then overall you didn't really win.
So don't focus on the idea of 'winning every time'. Instead let's maximise your chances of winning something -- AND the chances of that being a big win.
Because in real life, that's the honest best you can do. Take that from someone who has been helping people boost their chances of winning the lottery since 2003!
How Do You Choose Which Game To Play?
Whatever you do, don't be driven by 'shiny item syndrome'. The lottery company wants to sell as many lottery tickets as possible. The gas station/store wants to sell as many tickets as possible. Your aim is winning tickets - not buying lots of different shiny things!
So think carefully and plan before you buy. If you just blindly buy the latest scratch ticket you are hurting your chances of winning. If you just keep on buying the same ticket that you bought last time, then you are hurting your chances. If you buy 'one of these, two of those, and maybe a couple of them too' then you just hurt your chances again.
This is why the FIRST thing I focus on in 'How To Win Scratch Offs' is choosing the right game. It's the most important decision you can possibly make. Get that wrong and it doesn't really matter what else you do! So what are the best lottery scratchers to buy? - get my tips above and I'll walk you through how to choose which are best.
The same kind of thing applies to regular draw based games too. Which is why I also focus on this first in my tips on how to win the lottery for ball/number based games.
Does Your Playing Budget Matter?
No, not really. Anyone can buy a scratch off and win big. There are cases of a lottery player winning on the first scratcher they ever bought, or even the first time they ever played the lottery.
It only takes one lottery ticket to actually win big.
So don't listen to the dull nay-sayers who say you'll never win. Or the 'how to win at scratch offs experts' who claim you need a really big budget.
Your budget will determine how often you can play. But just remember two things:-
- Count playing scratchers as entertainment - you never really lose if you get good value out of playing! You can't lose when you go to the movies or buy a ticket to a football game - treat your scratch off tickets the same way, for entertainment purposes.
- Don't be crazy about it - only spend money you can afford to lose. Obviously don't risk the money that pays the bills and puts food on the table!
Then make sure you read my scratch off lottery tips and you'll put yourself streets ahead of most players.
Does Being Positive Help?
Mindset, being positive, the 'law of attraction' and all that stuff. It can't turn losing tickets into winning tickets.
But it does help in terms of being open to the idea that what you think (or have been taught!) may well be wrong. It also helps with that 'putting a little effort in' to maximise your chances. And it helps get the job of actually buying tickets done.
Because guess what fact is nearly always true for people who are overly negative about the lottery? The very people who say things like 'the odds are so bad it's impossible to ever win'. Or the ones who claim it's all a scam and the lottery company fix the results...
Those are the people who don't buy tickets!
And we can absolutely guarantee that those people will NEVER win! Scratch off cards or anything else.
Buy just one ticket ever, and your chances are already infinitely better than their chances! :-)
Thankfully, you are not like them.
What Scratchers Win The Most
Let those people smugly put their '$1 a week' into a savings account. And turn it into barely more than they started with by the time they retire. The rest of us can enjoy playing, maximise our chances of winning and celebrate when those wins do come along :-)
Is It All About The Grand Prizes?
Yes and no. Of course those grand prizes matter and ultimately that's what you want to be collecting from your state lottery.
But until that happens, you want to increase the number of smaller prizes you can collect from the convenience store meanwhile to keep the fun happening! Not every scratch card will win - that can never happen - it's all about increasing your odds overall. And that starts with selecting the right scratch off game.
Are Online Scratchers The Same As Scratch Cards?
No. Don't play them. They are more like a slot machine, and you can't apply most of the useful scratch ticket tips I give you.
Can I Lose A Scratchie By Playing It Wrong?
No, you can't :-). Although some of them look like there is some kind of skill involved, there really isn't. Even the ones that are branded as other games. You can't play it badly and lose. So don't worry about becoming an expert lottery player - it's all about which ticket you buy, not how well you play it.
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