Value Betting Sports
- Expected Value Sports Betting
- Value Betting Sportsbook
- Value Betting Software
- Finding Value Sports Betting
How to Bet On Sports > Bet Like A Wiseguy – Value Betting
Always Look for Value
The key to successful sports betting is obtaining value on every bet. Value means getting better than “true” odds on a team. For example, if your objective assessment of the game suggests the underdog should be receiving 3.5 points, but is receiving 6.5 point, then that is a value-betting proposition, also called an “overlay”.
The key to successful sports betting is obtaining value on every bet. Value means getting better than “true” odds on a team. For example, if your objective assessment of the. This gave the basics that you need to consider to fully get to grips with the topic of finding ‘value’ in sports betting. As a summary, bookmakers use odds to represent the probability of an outcome. The easiest way to make money on sports. With value betting, you place bets that have a larger chance of winning than implied by the odds, giving you the edge over the bookmakers. Value betting is a must if you want to win as a sports bettor. Only by calculating and identifying value is it possible to be a long term winner. The idea is to take advantage of overpriced odds and mistakes from. Expected Value (EV) is the most simple of all betting equations: Expected Value is the predicted value of a variable, calculated as the sum of all possible values each multiplied by the probability of its.
Value betting means betting when you regard the risk: reward ration as being heavily in your favor. And that can often mean betting the underdog. Too many bettors are frightened to back underdogs, but remember that a relatively poor team receiving a large point spread does not actually have to win the game, just lose by less than the points it is receiving. And they frequently do because they better team is only interested in winning and reducing the risk of injury, not covering the point spread.
Oddsmakers are often in a position where they have to issue lines/odds on a large number of games, so their resources are stretched and they are vulnerable. Even with their considerable expertise , they are by no means infallible, so be on the lookout for the so called “soft sports” where you consider that the oddsmaker has failed to judge the game or event properly or ignored a potentially key factor in the outcome.
Pay particular attention to key number in Football, especially 3,4,6,7, and 10, where minor changes in the spread have major implications for value. Even with the 2pt conversion option, changing a line from 6 to 7.5 is a major move; If you liked the under at +6, then you are getting tremendous value at +7.5.In Football, more games are decided by a margin or 3 points than by any other margin. Therefore, a point spread of 2.5 to 3.5 is a critical to the smart bettor.
Go Against The Public
Certain teams traditionally have a strong public following. It might be last year’s champion or a team with a high profile media superstar. Some teams, like the San Francisco 49ers, the Chicago Bulls, Manchester United, and the New York Yankees have captured the public’s imagination and have millions of fans.
The best-value bets can often be found by going against these teams because the oddsmakers adjust the line to reflect the expected weight of public money; so that the underdog is often quested at better odds or receives a larger point spread than is warranted.
Don’t Overreact to the Last Game
A team or player’s current form should be a major consideration in your analysis. But do not over-emphasize the result of their last game of performance, especially high scoring games and “blow outs”. The score may not accurately reflex the performance of quality of either the winning or losing teams.
Expected Value Sports Betting
A value bet is a bet where the probability of a given outcome is greater than the bookmakers odds reflect. Simply put, when value betting you will be placing bets that have a larger chance of winning than implied by the bookmakers odds. This means you will have an edge over the bookmaker in the long run.
An internet connection and a computer or mobile.
Some capital to invest (you can start with as little as a few hundred euros).
Sign up with a few recommended bookmakers for value betting (you can start with just one, but more bookmakers mean more value bets). See all supported bookmakers here.
Check out the full manual to learn the interface of ValueBetting and to get more in-depth explanations.
When tossing a coin there can only be two outcomes; heads or tails. We know that the chances of the coin to land on either heads or tails are 50% each. This equals to an odds of 2.00 for either outcome.
To calculate odds we use this formula: Odds = 1/probability in decimals. In this case, this is 1/0.5= 2.00
Now imagine you were offered odds of 2.10 on Heads and odds of 2.00 on Tails from two different bookmakers. What would you bet on?
Since the actual probability of the two outcomes is the same you should, of course, bet on the higher odds.
The odds of 2.10 is higher than what the underlying probability suggests, creating a value bet. The bigger the difference, the more profitable the value bet will be.
Finding value when sports betting is not as easy as detecting value in a coin toss. In sports, we cannot know the exact probability for a given match.
However, some bookmakers have proven that they are extremely good at determining odds that reflects the actual probability of an outcome. These are often referred to as “sharp” bookmakers, or “sharps”. Some sharps are better than others on certain sports as well. By evaluating these sharp bookmaker’s odds, taking betting bias and market efficiency into account, our servers can determine the “true odds” for any given match. This means that we also know when other bookmakers odds are off and where a positive expected value occurs.
Value betting situations in sports can occur when new information enters the market. For instance, if the line-up changes or if a key player gets injured. The sharp bookmakers automatically adjust the odds for that game according to this new information.
Other bookmakers will follow, but it could take minutes or even hours before they adjust their odds according to the market changes. These bookmakers will still show odds that doesn’t reflect the actual probability of the outcome.
Some bookmakers also set higher odds because of market reasons, or well-known betting biases like customers overvaluing long shots and winning streaks.
As a result of this, there will always be inconsistencies in the odds offered by the bookmakers. This means there will always be plenty of value betting situations for you to profit from.
In our earlier example with the coin toss, the expected value is 5%. It’s calculated as:
(Odds / true odds) -1
(2.10 / 2.0) – 1 = 0.05
Note that this is a trivial example, and our service also takes into account:
Value Betting Sportsbook
- The margin of the bookmaker, also known as the “juice”.
- Betting bias. Most bookmakers don’t balance their odds perfectly, they adjust their odds to players betting bias and the market.
- Market efficiency. A newly open market can offer a lot of value, but the true odds are also more unreliable.
- A proven staking strategy, the Kelly criterion.
- Several sources for the probabilities (true odds), that are proven over time to be profitable.
You can double your money in 3 months! That’s the average result of our members. Monthly ROI (investment growth) is over 30% and there is a proven yield of over 3% (profit per bet). See updated results from our value betting users.
It’s important to see value betting as a long term way to profit where the number of bets plays an important role. It’s all about volume. You need to place as many bets as your time and bankroll allow. The number of bets required to reach statistical significance is much higher than what most people think intuitively. You will have to place a couple of thousand bets before you will know with a great deal of certainty.
Variance will have a large impact on your results if you have a small sample size of bets. But with a large number of value bets, your results will always move towards it’s expected value over time. Learn all about expected value and variance.
You have to be prepared for downswings since you only bet on a single odds. Meaning you can lose since you do not cover all the possible outcomes (like you do when arbitrage betting). But you will profit in the long run.
Value betting differs in a number of ways compared to sports arbitrage betting. Check out the differences between value betting and arbitrage betting.
Value Betting Software
Want to learn more about value betting?
Finding Value Sports Betting
Get a head start by reading our best tips for value betting beginners. Remember, when value betting you have the upper hand on the bookmaker. But you have to build confidence in the value betting process and put trust in making money long term.